What will be the development trends and characteristics of the new energy storage industry in 2024:
In the context of new power system construction and energy green low-carbon transformation, new energy storage, as an important equipment foundation and key support technology, is being driven by multiple factors such as policy support, technological progress and cost reduction and rapid development. According to industry forecasts, in 2024 the new energy storage industry will continue to maintain a high development trend, the new installed capacity is expected to exceed 35 GWh. Then, what development trends and characteristics may be presented by the new energy storage industry in 2024?
New energy storage development faces new situation
National and local governments have intensively introduced policies to support the development of new energy storage, new energy storage has become a strategic emerging industry in China. At the national level, in recent years, the state from strengthening industrial guidance, increase technological innovation, standardize industry management, improve market mechanism, strengthen the scheduling and application, etc., issued a number of policy measures to support the development of new types of energy storage, promote new types of energy storage by the commercialization of the early stage of the development of scale.
Recently, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a signal to increase efforts to develop strategic emerging industries, new energy storage as an important equipment to support the large-scale development of new energy, has become a strategic emerging industry in China.
At the local government level, Guangdong Province, Guangdong Province, clear to the new energy storage industry to build Guangdong "manufacturing home" strategic pillar industries, proposed to 2025, the province's new energy storage industry revenue reached 600 billion yuan, to 2027, the province's new energy storage industry revenue reached 1 trillion yuan, the installed capacity reached 400 By 2027, the province's new energy storage industry revenue will reach 1 trillion yuan and the installed capacity will reach 400 million kilowatts.
Shandong Province has introduced policies to support the participation of new energy storage in the electricity spot market and capacity compensation, and Shandong Province has become the first province in China with the largest installed capacity of new energy storage. National and local policies will be new energy storage as a strategic emerging industry to vigorously promote the rapid development of China's new energy storage industry.
At present, the market investment enthusiasm for new energy storage is unprecedented, a large amount of capital influx into the new energy storage industry, is expected to promote the further maturation of new energy storage technology and industry. In recent years China's new energy storage industry continues to be hot, only in the first half of 2023 the industry financing totaled 73.4 billion yuan, involving lithium batteries, sodium batteries, liquid current batteries, portable/household storage systems, energy storage safety, battery recycling and other areas.
HaiBoShiChuang, honeycomb energy and more than ten new energy storage industry chain enterprises in the first half of this year into the listing process or complete listing. Under the strong boost of capital, China's new energy storage upstream and downstream industry chain will continue to mature, the new energy storage costs are expected to fall rapidly.
In the short term, the demand for new energy storage in the power system is not urgent, with the gradual increase in the proportion of new energy and new energy storage technology progress, new energy storage will play an important role in the new power system. There is a great potential for regulating resources that can be developed in the new type of power system.
On the one hand, the central government proposes to promote the development of coal power and new energy by optimizing the combination of coal power and new energy based on the basic national conditions of coal, and traditional power sources such as coal power will remain the main regulating resources in the future; on the other hand, in the context of electrification of transportation and electrification of energy use in buildings, a large number of flexible loads, electric vehicles and other resources are connected to the demand side, and their regulating potentials, if they can be tapped, will also provide a large number of flexible resources.
In 2022, China's wind power consumption rate of 96.8%, PV consumption rate of 98.3%, the five southern provinces and regions of new energy consumption rate of up to 99.8%. traditional regulating resources to provide regulation capacity has basically met the requirements of the current stage of new energy consumption, the power system of the new type of storage to participate in the regulation of the demand is not urgent, the new type of storage in the short term can not be the main force of the system regulation. New energy storage cannot become the main force of system regulation in the short term.
In the future, as the proportion of new energy in the power system gradually increases, while the new energy storage technology is rapidly progressing, the industry is gradually maturing and the cost is decreasing, the new energy storage will play an important role in the new power system.
Some Thoughts on Exploring the Development of New Energy Storage
First, the cost of running the source-load balance is important.New energy "three sex" is its basic, normal characteristics, hydropower also has, especially runoff small hydropower, the actual user power also has the above three sex. Need to source network storage with regulation, but the cost of energy storage, operation and loss, but also rely on policy and market revenue.
The second is to choose moments and scenarios to play a role.Both daily regulation and emergency regulation energy storage can be done to play the role of FM in daily regulation and, at the same time, reserve upward and downward charging and discharging space in order to be used for emergencies.
Third, the development of energy storage should be adapted to local conditions.Provinces with a high proportion of installed thermal power or abundant hydropower are mainly involved in the peaking market due to abundant FM resources; provinces with high load levels, high fluctuations and abundant FM resources are mainly involved in the FM market; in provinces with abundant FM and FM resources, energy storage is mainly used to guarantee emergency power support and accidental standby in the case of UHV DC failures.
Fourth, energy storage remains a means of regulation.Source network load three parties in the power system can be called "tripod", but the volume of energy storage and source network load three gap is too large, and will continue. Energy storage will never become the fourth foot of the power system, which is not the supply of the source, nor the demand of the load.
Fifth, it is appropriate to refer to the history of electricity to accurately apply the policy.With reference to the history of the development of electricity, we have gone from no electricity to electricity, from small units to large units, from localized power supply in power plants to networked regional power supply, from pooling of funds for power supply in times of resource constraints to competitive bidding for feed-in tariffs in times of market reforms, and even the promotion of rural areas in the context of the idea that electricity is a commodity and that one has to pay for its use, which is a gradual, locally-adapted policy direction. No overnight, completely consistent model is feasible. For example, there are many kinds of bags, luxury jewelry bag many people like, with such a bag to load the conference materials are not appropriate, paper bags, cloth bags to complement each other. Are bags, each with different sales groups. New energy electricity, energy storage electricity should also be designed according to local conditions, the corresponding market varieties, trading to the corresponding market players.
Sixth, the value return mechanism of energy storage should be improved.To combine the physical characteristics of electric propagation, to explore the new energy storage in the source network and load side, investors and users are satisfied, both can get sustainable income value return or function alternative mechanism.
New Energy Storage Industry 2024Four Keywords
Competition is the most prominent feeling for new energy storage practitioners in 2023.
The new energy storage cost reduction speed and development speed is far beyond the industry's expectations. National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Board issued in March 2022, "fourteen five" new energy storage development and implementation plan "put forward, by 2025 new energy storage from the early commercialization into the scale of development stage, with large-scale commercial application conditions, energy storage system cost reduction of 30% or more. That is to say, less than two years, the new energy storage has been ahead of schedule to complete the "14th Five-Year" cost reduction targets.
"In 2023, the energy storage system frame mining/collective mining concentration is high, the top ten purchasing unit size accounted for the total size of 90%, with 'five big and six small, two networks, two construction' as the main." Yue Fen pointed out that in 2023, Chinese companies in the global market energy storage battery (excluding base station / data center power reserve class battery) shipments are estimated at 185 GWh, less than expected at the beginning of the year. "Affected by a variety of factors, the industry's average capacity utilization rate of only 50% or so, the second half of the shipments appeared to slow down. With the high-speed expansion of production capacity and intensified competition in the industry, enterprises lacking capital as well as insufficient technology accumulation will face survival pressure."
Despite the challenges, new energy storage practitioners are confident about the future.
A new round of rally in the energy storage market has been opened, large capacity, long life, low-cost core has become the focus of various enterprises competing for research and development. Among them, the single cell capacity in the current 280Ah mainstream on the basis of rapid iteration, 300Ah, 560Ah, 700Ah, 1130Ah energy storage cell design endless. At the same time, based on high-capacity electric core, energy storage battery compartment single compartment power to achieve enhancement, ningde times, sunlight power, trina energy storage and other head enterprises have launched 20 feet 5 megawatt-hour container energy storage system.
From the point of view of downstream application, the problem of building but not using is prominent, and how to break the problem has become the key.
"There is a problem of underutilization of new energy storage and building but not using. Independent, shared energy storage has become the direction of the rapid development of the market in the past two years, the record project more than a hundred gigawatt-hours, but the same project prepared but not built problem." Yongtai digital energy vice president Jiang Weiliang pointed out that the core of the problem of preparing but not building, building but not using is that the market mechanism is not perfect, and the profit model of energy storage is not clear.
Energy storage projects in the planning and design, equipment selection, commissioning, there are many deficiencies, bidding are committed to a very good, but the specific implementation and pre-commitment gap is large, operation and maintenance failures, system consistency, rated capacity, availability is difficult to meet the expectations, resulting in the project's actual ability to call the capacity or availability of a very low rate.
In the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body, the new energy storage should not only be built well, but also used well.
"Even the best products should ultimately play their value through application, so that a good return mechanism can be formed and the industry can continue to develop in a benign manner." In the view of Chen Jianfu, co-president of Guangdong New Energy Storage National Research Institute Co. Ltd, large-scale integrated energy storage systems generally have the problems of complexity of multi-machine parallel control, low granularity of battery-side control, and lack of grid support functions. It is necessary to study and excavate the application scenarios of energy storage, and analyze the application demand of each scenario for energy storage. Concentrate the precise and differentiated requirements of different energy storage technologies and system indexes in each scenario. At the same time, research on energy storage planning - scheduling - trading aspects of the energy storage regulation technology to improve the method, the establishment of commercial mechanisms to adapt to the efficient operation of energy storage.
Demand for energy storage will drive the continuous improvement of policies and market rules.2023 In September 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau issued China's first basic rules for the electricity spot market - "Basic Rules for the Electricity Spot Market (Trial)", which makes it clear that new business entities such as energy storage and virtual power plants are involved in transactions. With the accelerated promotion of the power market and the peak-valley price difference, energy storage can be the main body to participate in the power spot market, auxiliary services market, by participating in the transaction to obtain income. From the published January power grid on behalf of the purchase of electricity prices, the existing 19 areas of the maximum peak and valley price difference of more than 0.7 yuan / kWh, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Hubei peak and valley price difference is the largest, respectively, reached 1.3053 yuan / kWh, 1.1414 yuan / kWh and 1.0693 yuan / kWh. can be seen, the new type of energy storage revenue is gradually open.
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